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TheRoonBa

Posts: 5,526 Site Admin

#61 [url]

Apr 6 16 12:52 PM

Netherlands Antilles were actually pretty reasonable at this time, and Mexico were nowhere near being as strong as they are today,

In modern times, a CONCACAF equivalent would be Panama beating Mexico at a neutral venue. Or Curaçao beating El Salvador.

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#65 [url]

Apr 14 16 7:53 PM

With that, given the general likelihood of errors creeping into large lists of date, I tend to think that there may be a mistake somewhere (e.g. a missing match or a wrong date) which would screw up the baton after a certain point.

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#66 [url]

Oct 9 16 7:42 PM

For the first time Wales did not lose against Georgia (in four matches)!
The uptrend seems unstoppable!

16/11/1994 away           0-5       EURO qualifier
07/06/1995 home          0-1       EURO qualifier
20/08/2008 home          1-2       friendly
09/10/2016 home         1-1       World Cup qualifier

oops…, the topic is “What are the greatest upsets in international football based on difference in the rankings?”
FIFA-ranking: Wales (10) at home, Georgia (137). We see: an upset in any case! In this or that way!

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#68 [url]

Oct 9 16 11:20 PM

Georgia is another of those frustrating teams which has a lot of footballing skill but rather little intelligence to actually win games consistently. They have always had better talented players (at least in attack) than their results showed, being capable of just isolated "surprise" results whereas it is the surrounding underachievement is the surprise. The first coach who finds the Georgian translation for "park the bus" or even "learn to head the ball and stop letting in sloppy goals" will clean up. I did wonder how they would fare in the AFC - would they be among the leaders, or would they just slump in level to the general standard?

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#69 [url]

Oct 11 16 9:49 AM

Another interesting result:

16/02/1994 Malta 1-0 Belgium


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#71 [url]

Oct 15 16 8:56 AM

Oh, I didn't even recall it... That was the typical attitude of Italy towards meaningless friendlies. And, as a matter of fact, just some months later, in a true competition, we almost captured the European title. Almost, unfortunately...

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#73 [url]

May 19 17 6:16 PM

On 04/09/1994 Burkina Faso beat Morocco 2-1 during the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. This is a resounding result. Morocco had just competed in the World Cup and, in that period, were among the best 35 national teams according to FIFA's rankings. Burkina Faso, on the other hand, were 127th in 1993.

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TheRoonBa

Posts: 5,526 Site Admin

#74 [url]

May 19 17 8:56 PM

Luca wrote:
On 04/09/1994 Burkina Faso beat Morocco 2-1 during the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. This is a resounding result. Morocco had just competed in the World Cup and, in that period, were among the best 35 national teams according to FIFA's rankings. Burkina Faso, on the other hand, were 127th in 1993.

But, as we all know, FIFA's rankings are crap.

In the real rankings (let's take eloratings), Burkina Faso were 93rd, Morocco were 47th before the match.  93rd beating 47th by a goal at home is not very resounding.  A moderate shock at best (and in Africa, hardly a shock at all, as with home advantage, many middle-ranking teams regularly win against higher-ranked opponents).

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#75 [url]

May 19 17 10:31 PM

Luca wrote:
On 04/09/1994 Burkina Faso beat Morocco 2-1 during the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. This is a resounding result. Morocco had just competed in the World Cup and, in that period, were among the best 35 national teams according to FIFA's rankings. Burkina Faso, on the other hand, were 127th in 1993.

FIFA rankings estimated Morocco slightly too high, Burkina Faso far too weak. As a result, the gap was rated too high (a full level, defined as » 200 pts.).
You can search
http://www.eloratings.net/Burkina_Faso.htm

Ctrl+F Morocco (check the date!) → after the match is the gap 127 pts. → considering the changes (+/- 24), the gap was before the game 175 pts.
Eloratings calculates the home advantage with a ‘flat-rate’ of 100 pts. A gap of 75 pts (»60:40) is about equivalent Inter v Sassuolo on a neutral ground… (as of 14/05/2017 clubelo says Inter v Sampdoria)*
According to CTR, host Burkina Faso v Morocco, 1994, was about a fifty-fifty match (in Africa home advantage is more significant, especially in competitive matches). Comparison eloratings/CTR: Morocco same level, Burkina Faso slightly ‘better’ at CTR.


* “Clubelo” should not be confused with eloratings.net. BTW, Elo was the name of a person and is not the name of a secret sauce ... Sometimes it looks like you just have to say ‘ELO’ and everyone will be immediately convinced of the scientific approach ...
Anyway, Clubelo is interesting because it improves "the sense of proportion". However, some specifics have to be taken into account.

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#76 [url]

May 19 17 10:46 PM

TheRoonBa wrote:
... But, as we all know, FIFA's rankings are crap.

Nowadays we have the sugar-glazed crap version.1993, it was the pre-pre-version ... without glaze.

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#77 [url]

May 20 17 10:01 AM

ctr wrote:
Sometimes it looks like you just have to say ‘ELO’ and everyone will be immediately convinced of the scientific approach ...
This would be Mr Blue Sky thinking.

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#78 [url]

May 20 17 1:47 PM

Mr Blue Sky has a lot of friends. Unfortunately, many of them think in the same way.

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