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TheRoonBa

Posts: 5,442 Site Admin

#21 [url]

Mar 4 14 7:31 PM

Thanks. Yes, Piet, the jokes are sarcastic/ironic - don't worry :-) We are joking about the fact you don't like rankings :-P

The reason we can't predict draws is that I am making it simple - For example, if a team is 35th in the rankings, and another team is 40th, would it be a draw? How many places would be between teams before we could stop calling it a draw? As all the ranking systems have different ways to rank teams, I thought it would be fairer to make it as simple as possible. Also, home advantage does not count (for the rankings), but for individual predictions, of course, home advantage can be included. The idea is to make it as equal as possible for everyone, with no bias toward any system.

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#23 [url]

Mar 4 14 8:18 PM

1Jordan v Syria
1Oman v Singapore
1Thailand v Lebanon
1Iraq v China
1Saudi Arabia v Indonesia
1Qatar v Bahrain
2Yemen v Malaysia
1Uzbekistan v United Arab Emirates
1Vietnam v Hong Kong
1Albania v Malta
2Algeria v Slovenia
2Andorra v Moldova
1Australia v Ecuador
2Austria v Uruguay
1Azerbaijan v Philippines
1Belgium v Ivory Coast
1Bosnia & Herzegovina v Egypt
1Botswana v South Sudan
2Bulgaria v Belarus
1Burkina Faso v Comoros
2Burundi v Rwanda
1Colombia v Tunisia
1Costa Rica v Paraguay
1Cyprus v Northern Ireland
1Czech Republic v Norway
2England v Denmark
1France v Netherlands
1Georgia v Liechtenstein
1Germany v Chile
2Gibraltar v Estonia
1Greece v South Korea
2Honduras v Venezuela
1Hungary v Finland
1India v Bangladesh
1Iran v Guinea
1Ireland v Serbia
1Israel v Slovakia
1Japan v New Zealand
1Kenya v Sudan
1Kosovo v Haiti
1Libya v Congo
1Lithuania v Kazakhstan
2Luxembourg v Cape Verde
2Slav-Macedonia v Latvia
1Malawi v Zimbabwe
1Mauritania v Niger
1Mexico v Nigeria
2Montenegro v Ghana
2Morocco v Gabon
1Mozambique v Angola
2Namibia v Tanzania
2Poland v Scotland
1Portugal v Cameroon
2Romania v Argentina
1Russia v Armenia
2Saint Lucia v Jamaica
1Senegal v Mali
2South Africa v Brazil
1Spain v Italy
1Switzerland v Croatia
1Turkey v Sweden
-Ukraine v USA cancelled, if not cancelled 2
2Wales v Iceland
1Zambia v Uganda

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TheRoonBa

Posts: 5,442 Site Admin

#24 [url]

Mar 4 14 8:23 PM

Thanks - I've just used people's forum name if they haven't given a name for their prediction 'team'.

That's 21 teams now for the men's competition, and 6 for the women's. 3 1/2 hours until the deadline.

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#25 [url]

Mar 4 14 8:44 PM

My predictions for the women's games are (literally) a bit one-sided. Anyway, here's for the Cubic Watermelon team:


1 Germany v Iceland (66%)
1 Norway v China (57%)
1 Sweden v Denmark (62%)
1 United States v Japan (50%)
1 Portugal v Austria (52%)
1 North Korea v Russia (58%)
1 Canada v Finland (66%)
1 England v Italy (51%)
1 Australia v Netherlands (57%)
1 France v Scotland (61%)
1 New Zealand v Ireland (65%)
1 South Korea v Switzerland (56%)
1 Northern Ireland v Estonia (79%)

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#26 [url]

Mar 4 14 9:04 PM

TheRoonBa wrote:
Val - what is your nationality?  The forum admin tools seem to think you are from both Sweden and the UK.

Admin tools are not thousands (actually 522) miles away from the truth: I'm lithuanian living in UK.

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#27 [url]

Mar 4 14 9:19 PM

nfm24 wrote:
Piet has a filter on his browser which doesn't allow him to see any page containing the string "ranking".  It's why he had to quit his job at an automatic envelope-labelling company, and before that, his previous job as a vintage car mechanic.
Franking and cranking....
Seems only Mark and I have this twisted sense of humour, and that is why we had to quit our jobs at the banana-peel and whoopee cushion factory.


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TheRoonBa

Posts: 5,442 Site Admin

#28 [url]

Mar 4 14 10:58 PM

Fixtures will be on the website tonight (after midnight deadline). Looks increasingly like the 22nd team will be another computer-generated Random team, unless someone submits an entry in the next hour.  The women's tournament looks like it will be an 8-team affair.


A lot at stake for the 'systems' in the league, defending the effectiveness of their rankings.  
It's not going to look too good losing to an 'individual'.  
The star name is obviously FIFA, and I'm sure everybody will raise their game in matches against them.  I wonder how FIFA will fare?  Will an individual take the title and force all the 'ranking freaks' to think again?
At the end of the day, just a bit of (organised) fun!

Last Edited By: TheRoonBa Mar 4 14 11:04 PM. Edited 2 times.

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TheRoonBa

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#30 [url]

Mar 4 14 11:44 PM

Good idea! - Population I think - easier to find a list of populations than GDPs for various entities (such as Wales).

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#34 [url]

Mar 5 14 8:56 AM

Too late!

After all inter-ranking matches have been played we can use the results to define a meta-ranking, which can be used to predict the results of the next round of inter-ranking results, so we won't have to bother thinking about our predictions ;-)

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#35 [url]

Mar 5 14 10:54 AM

TheRoonBa wrote:
On 5th March, I will conduct a 'fun' experiment.  A World Cup of rankings (or better, a World League of rankings).  The idea was inspired by a comparison I saw on CTR's ranking page...
  

Yes indeed. On CTR's ranking page there is a comparison among ranking systems. But correctly and for reasons of fairness and seriousness: only games are considered played on neutral ground.
Only in these cases can be derived from the ranking positions on the ‘predictions’ immediately. If I consider only the ranking positions in games with a host, so there will be false claims about what a system (really) predicts.

Example: in eloratings Cyprus is ranked on #121, Northern Ireland #113. But eloratings ‘predict’ win expectancies 61% (.610) for Cyprus and .39 for Northern Ireland.
So – if Cyprus wins, most (or all) private persons are right. Eloratings predicts the same as these persons … But – in your ‘League system’ is assumed, eloratings predicted false (which is not true).

In the games of March 5, there are very many games in which the minimal weaker classified teams play at home. These teams very often are nonetheless (‘predicted’) favorites due their home advantage.
In some cases a wrong prediction will change in a ‘correct’ one (if Northern Ireland wins in Cyprus …). In the very most cases but we will see an absurd inaccuracy of ranking systems which doesn’t exist.

The only (reliable) measure of the accuracy of a ranking system is the standard deviation, based on the squared deviations. (Example: Cyprus wins, actual result = 1, prediction eloratings .61, deviation = .39, squared deviation for this match = 0.392).

On the other hand: in the long run the numerical value of the standard deviation ‘correlates’ with the proportion of games in which the ‘predicted’ winners (favorites) lose. In order to make a meaningful statement at all, the sample must be large enough (to minimize the impact of randomness).

For lay people the correct measurements (standard deviation, etc.) seem too complicated … Therefore, I published on my site a simple, easily comprehensible example. In contrast to the game here, in my example grossly distorting tendencies do not occur (perhaps the only problem is the size of the sample – 154 match results).
I understand that you have simplified the game (Prediction League). For many ranking systems is not to see how they calculate the home advantage, some others consider no home advantage. But - I think it's a bad solution that now, in many cases the predictions of ranking systems will reversed in the exact opposite.

One additional point: I’m sure it is possible that members of this forum could predict better than ranking systems or bookies. Therefore bookies ‘cheat’ on odds. Tipico at the moment offers for Japan v New Zealand 1.15 – 7 – 20. If you are adding the reciprocals of the odds, so you do not get 1 (=100%), but 1,06 ... (the value bigger 1 is the calculated profit)
In terms of eloratings Tipico calculates including the home advantage a win expectancy of .886.

And – btw, the simplification (here, for the ‘Prediction League’) is in a higher sense one of the reasons for the existence of the FIFA rankings in the current format.
Simplify, simplify, simplify – that’s the motto of FIFA ranking and of the crowd. Great guys like Voros McCracken (or Martien Maas): away with you!smiley: wink

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TheRoonBa

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#36 [url]

Mar 5 14 2:10 PM

Yes - I realised about home advantage.

I am modifying the predictions for the ranking systems at the moment to take this into account. That way, we can still use all the "non-neutral" matches. Otherwise, there would be a VERY small sample size indeed.


After all, it's just a bit of fun.  I only thought about doing it a few days ago, and I don't have the benefit of having the mind of a scientific/mathematical genius. smiley: nerd

I've decided to take Sudan-Kenya out, because people have made already predictions based on Kenya being at home.  I think it's fair to not consider this match.

I think introducing an element of randomness is good (in this case), because it makes it more like 'real' football, where the best teams do not always win ;-)

Last Edited By: TheRoonBa Mar 5 14 2:53 PM. Edited 2 times.

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#38 [url]

Mar 5 14 3:51 PM

You don't need to change or modify anything! But - even if it is supposed to be just a game for fun: there is always a risk that a false impression is created .... (even without malicious intent).

You are right: the better teams do not always win. Good ranking systems like The Roon Ba even predict how often. In average in international matches the odds favorite v ‘underdog’ are about 70 to 30%. Assuming 24% draws: in about 18% of the games the weaker team will win (in friendlies a bit more).

If you don't have the benefit of having the mind of a scientific/mathematical genius and I saw on the other hand how good your ranking system worked: a natural genius appears to be sufficient ...

Again:
you don't need to change or modify anything! If only for some systems, the home advantage is taken into account, new problems arise ...

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TheRoonBa

Posts: 5,442 Site Admin

#39 [url]

Mar 5 14 4:22 PM

Well, I only changed a very little bit (most ratings systems allow you to infer home advantage at least, even if they don't actually use it implicitly).

The problem of small sample size, I think, is the main problem (especially for the women's matches - where the sample size is only 13!). In fact, I expect there will be many draws in the women's competition. And I can confirm that of the 8 teams, 2 have exactly the same predictions for all 13 matches (so these teams will finish exactly equal in the league). Hopefully, they do not finish equal 1st, or I will have to find some way of conducting a play-off. ;-)

Anyway - we will see what happens. If FIFA wins the league, I will eat my own leg.

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#40 [url]

Mar 5 14 5:06 PM

One could equally argue that any friendly should not really be considered worth predicting, or a worthy test of a ranking, because of experimental lineups, and because the team's priority is not always to win the game. Whereas in competitive games we may assume generally that teams always try to win and field full strength teams (no counter examples again please!).

You can also say this is considered already via a weighting of some kind, i.e. competitive matches are worth more.
Anyhow if 10.18g doesn't win then I will sulk.

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